Dorin Recean, Moldova’s prime minister, speaks during the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, US, on Friday, Sept. 27, 2024.
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Moldova’s parliament on Friday voted to approve a 60-day state of emergency, citing fears of an immediate threat to the security of its citizens ahead of an expected halt in Russian gas flows.
Russian gas currently reaches Moldova, a landlocked country in the northeastern corner of Europe’s Balkan region, via its neighbor of Ukraine.
However, a gas transit deal between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz is set to expire on Dec. 31 and Kyiv has repeatedly said it has no intention to extend the contract.
A total of 56 lawmakers of Moldova’s 101-seat parliament voted in favor of a nationwide state of emergency, which the government said would allow the country to apply a series of measures to prevent and mitigate the threat of insufficient energy resources.
The cessation of Russian gas to Moldova’s Transnistrian region could generate “a humanitarian crisis” as well as “risks to the functioning and stability” of the country’s energy sector, according to a press release from Moldova’s parliament.
Moldova Prime Minister Dorin Recean said this winter must be the last in the country’s history that it can be held hostage over energy supplies.
Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three years ago, has previously said it stands ready to continue to supply gas to Europe via Ukraine.
Russia launched a massive aerial strike against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on Friday morning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow used 93 missiles and nearly 200 drones in the attack.
Flow regulator valves at a natural gas measuring station in Moldova.
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Analysts at Dutch bank ING said the cessation of Russian gas supplies into Europe via Ukraine means the European Union will lose around 15 billion cubic meters of gas supply annually, which is the equivalent to around 5% of total imports.
“While there have been some efforts to try to keep gas flowing through a possible swap with Azerbaijan, it appears that these flows will stop and we believe this should be priced into the market,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, said in a research note published Wednesday.
“This leaves a downside risk to the market. If for any reason these flows continue, the European market will be left better supplied than many were expecting,” he added.