A specialist trader works inside a post on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 23, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Stocks churned on Monday as investors geared up for the U.S. presidential election.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 200 points, or about 0.5%. The S&P 500 was little changed, while the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.1%. The Dow was down more than 400 points at session lows, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq shuffled between gains and losses throughout the day.
The moves for stocks came as safe-haven U.S. Treasurys rallied, suggesting that some investors may be reducing risk ahead of election day. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was trading about 4.3% on Monday, down from roughly 4.36% on Friday. Bond yields move opposite of price.
Nvidia shares were up 2% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced late Friday that the chipmaker would replace rival Intel in the 30-stock Dow. The change, which will take effect at the end of the week, comes as Nvidia continues to rip higher while Intel languishes in the artificial intelligence race.
Nvidia is up 178% year to date, while Intel has lost more than half of its value in that time.
NVDA vs INTC year to date
Tuesday’s election results could play a pivotal role in where stocks finish off the year. The latest poll from NBC News shows a “deadlocked race” between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
However, any market aftershocks may hinge more heavily on which party takes control of Congress. Major legislative changes would be difficult if control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate is divided. A Republican or Democratic sweep, however, would likely be coupled with a White House victory for the same party, and could mean fresh spending plans or a tax overhaul.
Some on Wall Street view the election as a key obstacle markets need to overcome to rally into year-end.
“The US election is incredibly important, but the process is likely to be incredibly noisy. Some patience, and a plan, can make the difference between navigating the noise and getting lost in it,” Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas said in a note to clients.
Along with the election, Wall Street is bracing for the latest rate decision from the Federal Reserve on Thursday. Traders are pricing in a 96% likelihood of a rate cut at the conclusion of the central bank’s policy meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. It would follow a supersize 50 basis point move in September.
— CNBC’s Sarah Min contributed reporting