Crude oil futures edged higher Thursday, after four days of losses on easing fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East and a looming surplus next year.
Although Israel has held back from retaliating against Iran so far, the situation “could change at a moment’s notice,” said Aditya Saraswat, Middle East research director at Rystad Energy.
“In a widespread regional war scenario, Iran and Israel’s conflict could severely impact gas exports and lead to delays in oil development projects,” Saraswat said in a note Thursday.
Here are Thursday’s energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November contract: $70.67 per barrel, up 28 cents, or 0.4%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has fallen more than 1%.
- Brent December contract: $74.45 per barrel, up 23 cents, or 0.31%. Year to date, the global benchmark has declined more than 3%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0468 per gallon, up 0.32%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled back nearly 3%.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.347 per thousand cubic feet, down 0.84%. Year to date, gas has declined nearly 7%.
Israel has reportedly told the U.S. that it will refrain from hitting Iran’s oil facilities in retaliation for the Islamic Republic’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack. The oil market sold off steeply Tuesday on reports that Israel will limit its strike to military targets in Iran.
An attack on oil facilities, however, could disrupt 1.4 million barrels per day of Iran’s production, Saraswat said. A full-blown war could lead to Iran choking the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing 12 million bpd of oil and “driving up prices sharply,” the analyst said.